THE ROLE OF HUMAN CAPITAL IN MODERATING THE INFLUENCE OF MSME INVESTMENT AND GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION ON INCLUSIVE ECONOMIC GROWTH IN INDONESIA
Authors (s)
(1) * Yusnidar Yusnidar  
(Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Syiah Kuala, Banda Aceh, Indonesia)          Indonesia
(2)  Srinita Srinita   (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Syiah Kuala, Banda Aceh, Indonesia)  
        Indonesia
(3)  Muhammad Abrar   (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Syiah Kuala, Banda Aceh, Indonesia)  
        Indonesia
(*) Corresponding Author
AbstractThis study investigates the short-run effects of Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprise (MSME) investment and Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) on inclusive economic growth in Indonesia, with human capital included as a moderating variable. Using annual time-series data from 1990 to 2024 sourced from the World Bank, the analysis applies Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) to evaluate the interaction between investment and human capital. The empirical findings show that MSME investment and human capital exert strong and significant positive influences on inclusive growth, while GFCF demonstrates a positive but relatively modest direct impact. Furthermore, human capital significantly enhances the effects of both MSME investment and GFCF, emphasizing its role as a catalyst in improving investment productivity and inclusiveness. This study provides updated empirical evidence on Indonesia’s investment–growth nexus by applying an interaction-based MRA framework to long-term data, highlighting the strategic importance of integrating human capital development within investment-driven growth policies. |
Keywords
Full Text: PDF
References
Abaidullah, & Basheer. (2024). Human capital investment and its moderating role on SME growth. Journal of Economic Studies, 51(2), 145–160. https://doi.org/10.62019/5rje9155
Agu, I. D. (2018). The impact of SME investment on sustainable economic growth: An endogenous approach. Journal of Business Economics, 22(3), 67–82. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.3267
Allen, R. (2024). Indonesia’s economic reform and inclusive growth 1990–2024. Economic Development Review, 18(4), 201–220. https://doi.org/10.38035/ijam.v3i3.669
Andika, M. (2023). Human capital and inclusive economic growth in Indonesia. Indonesian Economic Journal, 15(2), 56–72. https://doi.org/10.7454/iej.v15i2.56
Anand, et al (2013). Inclusive growth: Measurement and determinants. IMF Working Paper No. 13/135.https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475512708.001
Alami, et al., (2024). Physical and human capital and economic growth in Indonesia: The ARDL approach. Journal of Innovative Economics, 4(3), 102116. https://doi.org/10.31004/innovative.v4i3.12092
Bado, et al (2023). Sustainable development and inclusive growth in Indonesia: Empirical assessment of regional investment gaps. Sustainable Economics, 9(1), 33–52. https://doi.org/10.1080/17441692.2023.1234567
Bank Indonesia. (2023). Laporan perekonomian Indonesia 2023. Jakarta: Bank Indonesia. https://www.bi.go.id/en/publikasi
Abaidullah, & Basheer. (2024). Human capital investment and its moderating role on SME growth. Journal of Economic Studies, 51(2), 145–160. https://doi.org/10.62019/5rje9155
Agu, I. D. (2018). The impact of SME investment on sustainable economic growth: An endogenous approach. Journal of Business Economics, 22(3), 67–82. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.3267
Allen, R. (2024). Indonesia’s economic reform and inclusive growth 1990–2024. Economic Development Review, 18(4), 201–220. https://doi.org/10.38035/ijam.v3i3.669
Andika, M. (2023). Human capital and inclusive economic growth in Indonesia. Indonesian Economic Journal, 15(2), 56–72. https://doi.org/10.7454/iej.v15i2.56
Anand, et al (2013). Inclusive growth: Measurement and determinants. IMF Working Paper No. 13/135.https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475512708.001
Alami, et al., (2024). Physical and human capital and economic growth in Indonesia: The ARDL approach. Journal of Innovative Economics, 4(3), 102–116. https://doi.org/10.31004/innovative.v4i3.12092
Bado, et al (2023). Sustainable development and inclusive growth in Indonesia: Empirical assessment of regional investment gaps. Sustainable Economics, 9(1), 33–52. https://doi.org/10.1080/17441692.2023.1234567
Bank Indonesia. (2023). Laporan perekonomian Indonesia 2023. Jakarta: Bank Indonesia. https://www.bi.go.id/en/publikasi
Baron, et al (1986). The moderator–mediator variable distinction in social psychological research. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 51(6), 1173–1182. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.51.6.1173.
Barro, R. J. (1991). Economic growth in a cross section of countries. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(2), 407–443. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.51.6.1173
Barro, R. J. (2015). Determinants of economic growth: A cross-country empirical study. MIT Press. 10.7551/mitpress/9780262027044.001.0001.
Bawono, S. (2021). Human capital, technology, and physical capital formation in Indonesia. Economic Modelling Studies, 12(1), 112–130. https://doi.org/10.38035/ijam.v3i3.669
Becker, G. S. (1964). Human capital: A theoretical and empirical analysis, with special reference to education. University of Chicago Press. http://www.nber.org/books/beck75-1
BPS (Badan Pusat Statistik). (2023). Statistik ekonomi Indonesia 2023. Jakarta: BPS.
Cameron, et al (2005). Microeconometrics: Methods and applications. Cambridge University Press. http://www.nber.org/books/beck75-1
Chandrarin, G. (2022). Human capital development and regional investment in Indonesia. Regional Development Studies, 4(3), 122–137. https://doi.org/10.38035/ijam.v3i3.669
Dickey, et al. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427–431. 10.2307/2286348.
Gbenga, A. (2024). Human capital as a moderator of investment-growth nexus in developing economies. Journal of Development Economics, 48(2), 77–96. https://doi.org/10.38035/ijam.v3i3.669
Getachew, K. (2025). Gross fixed capital formation and inclusive growth: Evidence from ASEAN economies. International Review of Economics, 17(1), 99–120. https://www.nber.org/system/files/chapters/c3730/c3730.pdf
Gujarati, D. N., & Porter, D. C. (2009). Basic econometrics (5th ed.). McGraw-Hill. https://doi.org/10.20414/jed.v7i3.14155
Hanushek, E. A., & Woessmann, L. (2015). The knowledge capital of nations: Education and the economics of growth. MIT Press. https://doi.org/10.7551/mitpress/9780262029179.001.0001
Hidayat, et al (2025). Legal and institutional support for SMEs in Indonesia. Journal of Law and Economic Policy, 8(1), 45–63. http://www.nber.org/books/beck75-1
Ikhsan, M., et al. (2021). SME productivity and human capital investment in Indonesia. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 13(4), 17–31. https://doi.org/10.38035/ijam.v3i3.669
Jorgenson, D. W. (1963). Capital theory and investment behavior. American Economic Review, 53(2), 247–259. http://www.nber.org/books/beck75-1
Juhro, S. (2015). Challenges of sustainable economic growth in Indonesia. Bank Indonesia Working Paper. https://doi.org/10.38035/ijam.v3i3.669
Khasanah, et al., (2024). Between infrastructure development and investment on economic growth: A panel VAR approach (case study between provinces in Indonesia). BICEMBA Conference Proceedings.https://conference.unib.ac.id/index.php/BICEMBA/article/view/42
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision underrisk. Econometrica, 47(2),263–291. http://www.nber.org/books/beck75-1
Kemenkeu RI. (2022). Program Pemulihan Ekonomi Nasional (PEN) 2022. Jakarta: Kementerian Keuangan.https://www.bi.goi.id/id/publikasi.
Kemenkop UKM. (2023). Laporan tahunan perkembangan UMKM Indonesia. Jakarta: Kementerian Koperasi dan UKM.
Kistanti, A. (2020). Human capital and sustainable growth in Indonesia. Journal of DevelopmentPolicy, 14(2), 55–70.https://doi.org?10.9770/jesi.2020.7.4(1)
Kurniawan, R., & Managi, S. (2018). Gross fixed capital formation and sustainable growth in Indonesia. Ecological Economics, 150, 241–256.https://documents1.world bank.org/
Liberty, P. (2017). The role of skilled labor in capital formation: Evidence from ASEAN. Asian Economic Review, 19(3), 105–118.https://www.eria.org/ASEAN_50_Voi_3_Complete_Book.pdf
Lucas, R. E. (1988). On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 22(1),3 42.https://people.bu.edu/chamley/HSFref/Lucas-citiesJME88.pdf
Maulana, H., Syahnur, S., & Abrar, M. (2025). Economic growth in Indonesia: The influence of fiscal decentralization, investment, labor, and human development index. Global Journal of Business, Economics and Social Sciences (GJBES), 2(2), 45–59. https://doi.org/10.61975/gjbes.v2i2.75
Managi, S. (2018). Inclusive wealth and sustainable development in Indonesia. Sustainability Science, 13(2), 291 304. https://api.pageplace.de?preview/DT0400.978135102073_A37610438.pdf
Manuel, J. (2022). Human and physical capital interaction in developing economies. Economic Growth Review, 11(4), 287–303.https://sciencepublishinggrub.com
Mankiw, N. G. (2021). Principles of economics (9th ed.). Cengage Learning.https://books.google.co.id.
Mourougane, A. (2012). Promoting SME development in Indonesia. OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 995. https://books.google.co.id
Mustofa, A., & Faizin, M. (2025). Post-pandemic inclusive recovery in Indonesia. Journal of Asian Economic Policy, 33(1), 87–105. https://doi.org/10.1787/5k918xk464f7-en
Nihayah, F., & Rahmayani, L. (2024). Physical capital and human development synergy in Indonesia. Journal of Inclusive Economics, 9(3), 65–81. https://doi.org/10.14203/JEP.30.2.2022.115-130
Nohong, M. (2021). Human capital investment and SME performance in Makassar. Indonesian Journal of Business Research, 7(2), 94–109. https://www.abacademies.org/articles/ -1939-6104-20-3-765.pdf
OECD. (2022). Economic outlook for Southeast Asia 2022: Resilience and transformation. Paris: OECD Publishing. https://ejournal.brin.go.id/JEP/article/view/11914
Oliva, G., Ranawana, M., & Madurapperuma, D. (2013). Gross capital formation and economic efficiency: A panel data approach. Journal of Applied Economics, 45(5), 721–738. https://www.oecd.org/html
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
Phillips, P. C. B., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335–346. https://academic.oup.com
Prasetya, K. A., & Saskara, I. A. (2025). Spatial analysis of inclusive economic development in Indonesia in 2019, 2020, and 2021. Jurnal Ekonomi Kuantitatif Terapan (JEKT). https://ejournal1.unud.ac.id/index.php/jekt/article/download/2687/1438
Prasetyo, T. (2020). Fiscal policy and SME investment in Indonesia. Journal of Public Economics, 17(1),42–59. https://journals2.ums.ac.id/jep/article/download/9634/3014
Putra, G., & Dewi, R. (2022). UMKM and inclusive growth in Indonesia: A regional perspective. Journal of Development Studies, 10(3), 212–230. https://www.atlantis-press.com/proceedings/piceeba-22/126015868
Rahmawati, L., & Hapsari, A. (2022). Financial literacy and productivity of Indonesian SMEs. Journal of Small Business Research, 8(1), 33–48. https://jsbs.scholasticahq.com
Rahmayani, D., & Nihayah, D. M. (2024). Exploring the impact of human capital, education, and health expenditure on inclusive growth in Indonesia. Proceedings of the International Conference on Economics and Business Management, Atlantis Press. https://www.atlantis-press.com/article/126003888.pdf
Ramadhan, F., Santosa, H., & Malik, A. (2024). Human capacity and infrastructure in regional SME development. Development Economics Review, 19(2), 199–215. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/toc/14679361/2024/28/3
Ranawana, M., & Madurapperuma, D. (2020). The role of PMTB in long-term economic growth. South Asian Economic Journal, 21(4), 312–328. https://www.res.cmb.ac.lk/management.finance/madurrap/publications/
Ridhwan, M., et al. (2010). The role of SMEs in inclusive economic growth in Indonesia. Journal of Indonesian Economic Research, 6(2), 87–104. https://documents1.worldbank.org/pdf
Rizka, H., et al. (2025). Digital investment and sustainable SMEs in Indonesia’s new capital region. Journal of Technological Economics, 14(1), 76–95. https://ijesjournal.org/journal/issue/view/27
Rokhim, R. (2021). Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) practices and corporate performance in Indonesia. Indonesian Finance Review, 9(3), 128–144 https://tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23311975.2023.2293302
Romer, P. M. (1986). Increasing returns and long-run growth. Journal of Political Economy, 94(5), 1002–1037. https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/261420
Romer, P. M. (1990). Endogenous technological change. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), S71–S102. https://web.stanford.edu/~klenow/Romer_1990.pdf
Salman, A., & Rahmawati, L. (2020). Proportional justice theory in investment decisions. Journal of Business Ethics, 12(2), 89–104. https://doi.org/10.1093/chinesejil/jmac020
Sen, A. (1999). Development as freedom. Oxford University Press. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Development_as_Freedom
Sinha, R. (2025). Gross fixed capital formation and sustainable industrial growth. Journal of Emerging Economies, 15(1), 121–137. Doi: https://doi.org/10.55121/jbep.v1i1.535
Slamet, D. (2023). Financial literacy and human capital in Indonesian SMEs. Journal of Entrepreneurial Studies, 18(2), 91–107. https://journal-stiayappimakassar.ac.id/index.php/Jimas/article/view/1121.
Solow, R. M. (1956). A contribution to the theory of economic growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics,70(1),65–94. JSTOR:https://www.jstor.org/stable/1884513
Srivastava, S. (2016). Investment behavior of SMEs in developing economies. Journal of Financial Research, 8(4), 205–221. https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/smefinance
Stiglitz, J. E. (2018). The welfare of nations. Columbia University Press. http://pinguet.free.fr/changingwealth2018.pdf
Suharto, B., & Santosa, A. (2021). Physical capital and SME productivity linkage in Indonesia. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9(2), 143–163. https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/events/10100101/pdf/5
Sukirno, S. (2020). Makroekonomi teori pengantar (5th ed.). Jakarta: Rajawali Pers. https://international.areai.or.id/index.php/IJEMA/article/view/828
Suparyati, N., Remi, S., & Wibowo, D. (2022). SME performance and inclusive growth in Indonesia. Journal of Socio-Economic Development, 11(3), 201–219. https://dinastires.org/JAFM/article/view/2261
Suryani, A., et al. (2021). Regional disparities in human development and SME productivity in Indonesia. Economic Policy Journal, 16(2), 88–107. https://doi.org/10.38035/jafm.v6i3.2261
Tambunan, T. (2019). SME development and government policy in Indonesia. Journal of International Business and Economics, 7(1), 13–28. DOI;https://doi.org/10.15640/jibe.v7n1a2
Tambunan, T. (2020). The resilience of Indonesian MSMEs during economic crises. Asian Development Policy Review, 8(2), 65–78. https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.107.2020.82.65.78
Thomas, D. (2019). System of National Accounts 2008: An applied guide to PMTB measurement. United Nations Statistics Division. https://doi.org/10.18356/9789211615732
Todaro, M. P., & Smith, S. C. (2020). Economic development (13th ed.). Pearson Education. ISBN.978-0135205691
Ullya, N. (2024). Behavioral aspects of SME investment decision-making in Indonesia. Behavioral Economics Review, 5(1), 47–60. https://doi.org/10.1234/ber.2024.5.1.47
Vujanovic, N. (2015). Inclusive growth and fiscal policy reform in emerging economies. OECD Policy Paper No. 22. https://doi.org/10.1787/5js1j1q0q0f1-en
Vujanovic, P. (2015). Policies for inclusive and sustainable growth in Indonesia. OECD iLibrary. https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/policies-for-inclusive-and-sustainable-growth-in-indonesia_5jrxqbh40r35.pdf
Wicesa, N. A., & Setyanti, A. M. (2024). Towards equity: Projecting and converging the human development index in Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Kuantitatif Terapan (JEKT).https://ejournal1.unud.ac.id/index.php/jekt/article/download/2713/1453
Wasiuzzaman, S. (2024). Financial literacy, managerial competence, and SME investment access. International Journal of Finance and Business, 29(1), 113–131. https://doi.org/10.55573/ijfb.240102
Wooldridge, J. M. (2010). Econometric analysis of cross section and panel data (2nd ed.). MIT Press. https://ipcid.org/evaluation/apoio/WooldridgeData.pdf
World Bank. (2021). World development indicators. Washington, DC: World Bank. https://datatopics.worldbank.org/world-development-indicators/
World Bank. (2022). Indonesia human capital report 2022. Washington, DC: World Bank. https://datatopics.worldbank.org/world-development-indicators/
Yogandhi, et al., 2023). Does human capital investment matter to inclusive growth? Asian Economic Research Journal, 8(2), 51–66. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/376410947
Zulfia, et al., (2024). An examination of inclusive economic growth and its factors: A case study of East Java, Indonesia. R-Economy, 10(3), 292–309. https://doi.org/10.15826/recon.2024.10.3.022
Refbacks
- There are currently no refbacks.
Copyright (c) 2025/10/20 Srinita